Republicans, frightened by the possibility (likelihood?) of a Gavin Newsom presidential candidacy in 2028, already are going after him for a variety of California-related issues, including homelessness, affordability and crime. Of that trio, which could hamper both Newsom’s ability to win the Democratic nomination and, if he does, the general election, crime may be the most intractable.
Newsom can argue, correctly, that homelessness is an American problem, not just in California, and that is true. He can reverse the affordability argument and turn it against large corporations who, most Americans will agree, are greedy, who look out only for their CEOs and shareholders, and are happy to gouge us if they feel they can get away with it, which they can. But crime is different. It touches everyone. Everyone is afraid of crime, and no crime shocks the public more than the invasion of retail shops by hoards of ski-masked marauders, scenes of brazen carnage often caught on video and retweeted endlessly.
The passage of Proposition 36, which became effective in December, 2024, was voters’ reaction to what they perceived as inaction on retail theft, mainly by the courts. The new proposition brought tougher penalties for serial retail theft, mandated drug and mental health treatment for certain offenders and in general cracked down on drug dealers. The measure passed by a landslide 68% of the statewide vote, despite Gov. Newsom’s strong and widely reported opposition.
In the Spring of 2025, there were news reports that in Newsom’s proposed new budget, “there [was] no funding allocated for Proposition 36.” Conservative Republicans, as well as some law enforcement unions, immediately jumped on the Governor and accused him of ignoring the will of the voters. Newsom explained his opposition to Prop 36 many times. The issue had clearly become irksome to him; he felt misunderstood. The situation was complicated, he argued, and besides, he touted his many significant actions against crime, including sending the California Highway Patrol to cities like Oakland.
But the crime issue remains a tough one for Newsom. He knows that these retail thefts are infamous across America, even in places where they don’t occur. He senses his vulnerability. Newsom has an Irish temper that can explode when he feels wrongly accused of something, as he does with the Prop 36/crime situation. His policy wonkiness, which works in his behalf when it comes to crafting legislation, can be a debit if he has to explain the complexities of an issue. As the old saying, attributed to Ronald Reagan, goes, “Once you’re explaining, you’re losing.”
I don’t think the crime issue has completely gotten away from Newsom. He’s still positioned to defend himself, even as crime rates in California drop, as they are everywhere across the country. But Newsom will have to recraft his message in a more understandable and compelling way that makes sense to people. He’ll have to control that temper of his, which can blind him to the way voters are really feeling on sensitive issues. I say these things as a Newsom supporter who believes he can make a good, and perhaps great President.
Steve Heimoff